Marco Rubio visits India: What’s at stake with Trump-Modi ties strained? 

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to India on Saturday for a three-day visit taking in Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur and New Delhi.

He will discuss energy security, trade and defence cooperation with senior Indian officials, US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement on Tuesday.

The visit comes as relations between US President Donald Trump and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi continue to fluctuate.

So what is Rubio’s visit all about, and is he trying to mend bridges between the two nations?

Here is more about why Rubio’s visit to India is significant.

What is the context of Rubio’s visit to India?

Rubio is spending a few days in India ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers from the informal Quad security forum comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India in New Delhi on May 26.

The Quad, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, has been referred to as “the Asian version of NATO”. It was formed as a response to the rising power of China and has carried out joint military and naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific region.

Rubio’s visit also comes days after the Trump administration moved to dismiss US criminal fraud charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani in a case in which he is accused of bribing Indian officials with as much as $265m to secure contracts and of lying to US investors to secure a solar energy project in India, allegations that his company has long denied.

The case was dropped by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) after Adani pledged a $10bn investment in the US.

In an X post on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid “energy-vulnerable” countries hit by the Iran war, reversing plans not to grant an extension.

Bessent said the Treasury was issuing the 30-day general licence after a previous waiver lapsed on May 16. It allows temporary access to Russian oil and petroleum products stranded on tankers without violating severe US sanctions on Russian oil majors, he said.

This extension has temporarily eased pressure on major Russian oil buyers such as India, which has previously faced US criticism for its reliance on discounted Russian crude.

Both these moves – the dismissal of charges against Adani and the extension of the sanctions waiver on Russian oil already at sea – can be seen as attempts to boost relations with India, observers said.

Rubio’s meeting with other leaders of the Quad will also be seen as a sign of the US reaffirming its commitment to the Indo-Pacific region.

Is Rubio trying to shore up relations with India?

Analysts say that Rubio’s visit to India is part of Washington’s attempt to mend bilateral ties with New Delhi following tension between Trump and Modi last year.

Sadanand Dhume, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CEFR), wrote in an article for the CEFR website on Thursday that Rubio is going to India in “repair” mode.

Last October, Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran told The Wire: “The 25-year upward trajectory of India-US relations has certainly plateaued, if not started declining”.

Why have India-US relations been strained?

There have been a few main points of contention between Trump and Modi.

Russian oil and trade tariffs

Last year, relations between them neared crisis point when Trump imposed additional 25 percent trade tariffs – doubling existing ones to 50 percent – as “punishment” for India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

In October, following a meeting with Modi, Trump said that India had committed to ceasing Russian oil purchases. In return, Trump agreed to slash US tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent.

But, since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, India has continued to buy Russian oil.

Now the US is hoping to persuade India to buy oil from the US and Venezuela instead.

Pakistan

Rubio’s visit comes after months of improving relations between the US and Pakistan, India’s arch enemy.

In April last year, India and Pakistan became embroiled in armed conflict after attackers killed 26 people in Pahalgam, a popular tourist spot in Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a separatist group designated a “terrorist” organisation by India and the US, and which New Delhi alleges is linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a group which demands Kashmir become part of Pakistan – a claim Islamabad denies.

Following the Pahalgam attack, New Delhi scaled back diplomatic ties with Islamabad and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which ensures the appropriate sharing of water from the Indus River between the two countries.

On May 7, India struck nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir with missiles, which Islamabad said killed dozens of civilians. Over the following three days, the countries engaged in a heated aerial war, using drones and missiles to target each other’s military bases.

A ceasefire – for which Trump claimed credit – was eventually brokered on May 10. However, tensions between the South Asian neighbours continue to simmer. India also refused to acknowledge Trump’s role in brokering the ceasefire while Pakistan nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize as a result.

“PM Modi told President Trump clearly that during this period, there was no talk at any stage on subjects like India-US trade deal or US mediation between India and Pakistan,” Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said last June.

Over the course of the US-Israel war on Iran, Pakistan has been playing the role of mediator and regularly coordinating with US officials. “Great respect for Pakistan, but I will, because they’ve been terrific. They’ve really tried, and they’ll stay involved,” Trump said during an interview with Fox News in April.

Last December, the US approved the sale of advanced technology and upgrades for Pakistan’s F-16 warplanes worth approximately $686m.