What’s next for Imran Khan’s PTI after Islamabad protest setback? 

Islamabad, Pakistan – When a convoy of thousands of supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party arrived in Islamabad on Monday night to rally behind their imprisoned leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, they were urged by Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, to stay until his release was secured.

However, within 24 hours, a late night raid by security forces on Tuesday dispersed the crowd, reportedly resulting in casualties among both PTI protesters and law enforcement personnel.

The operation, which began just before midnight, was conducted under a power blackout in central Islamabad, less than 3km (2 miles) from D-Chowk, the public square marking the boundary of the capital’s Red Zone, where many government buildings are located.

Bushra Bibi and Ali Amin Gandapur, the PTI chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, retreated to the northwestern province under the cover of darkness as the operation commenced and security forces used tear gas to disperse the crowd. By Wednesday morning, PTI issued a statement announcing it was calling off the protest “for the time being”.

The PTI convoys had moved from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into Islamabad, defying court orders banning their entry into the city, to pressure the government on three demands: reclaiming what the party calls its “stolen mandate” from the February elections, the release of political prisoners including Khan and the reversal of a constitutional amendment granting the government control over judicial appointments.

By the time the protesters left, it was the PTI’s leadership that was under pressure, analysts said. None of the party’s demands had been met, and there was little clarity on how the organisation would regroup.

“This protest was framed as their ‘final call’, but for it to collapse like this is a major blow to their political strategy,” political analyst Zaigham Khan told Al Jazeera.

The operation by police and paramilitary rangers has led to conflicting reports about fatalities.

The PTI said eight of its supporters were killed while the government denied using live ammunition and insisted no protesters died. Officials reported that three rangers were killed in a hit-and-run incident involving a PTI convoy on Monday while a police constable died in clashes with party supporters.

This was the PTI’s fourth protest in four months with previous rallies, including one in October, ending prematurely.

On Wednesday afternoon, Gandapur held a news conference in Mansehra city of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, condemning the government’s crackdown on PTI workers and indicating that the party would continue to press its demands.

The PTI has been in protest mode since Imran Khan’s government was ousted through a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022.

Although its candidates won the most seats in February’s elections, the party failed to form a government and claimed its mandate had been stolen.

Imran Khan has been in jail since August 2023 and faces numerous charges, including corruption and treason. Bushra Bibi was also imprisoned for nine months on corruption charges before securing bail in October.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi blamed Bushra Bibi for orchestrating the unrest in Islamabad. “The loss of life and economic damage over the past few days lies squarely on her shoulders,” Naqvi said on Tuesday.

PTI leader Sayed Zulfi Bukhari declined to comment on the party’s next steps, saying it was focused on dealing with casualties.

But Benazir Shah, a Lahore-based political analyst, said that at the moment, launching yet another large-scale protest for Imran Khan’s release seems out of the question for the PTI.

“Moving forward, PTI will need to recalibrate its strategy. One potential path would be to build alliances with other political parties as well as popular movements that share grievances against the state. A unified protest focused on social or human rights issues could help generate national momentum,” Shah told Al Jazeera.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spokesperson Rana Ihsaan Afzal rejected accusations of excessive force, accusing PTI supporters of carrying weapons.

“We have policemen with bullet wounds, which indicates the protesters were armed,” Afzal said. He added that the government had repeatedly offered alternative protest sites but the PTI violated Islamabad High Court orders by holding a rally in the city.

“This was not a peaceful protest. They wanted violence and used it as a tactic to gain sympathy,” he said.

But analysts said the PTI’s latest protest setback demonstrates, more than anything else its lack of leadership.

Analyst Talat Hussain said the party’s reliance on social media hype faltered when tested on the ground. “Last night, PTI learned there is more to politics than online narratives,” he told Al Jazeera.

Ahmed Ijaz, a political observer in Islamabad, questioned the abrupt departure of Bushra Bibi and Gandapur, arguing their actions would deepen divisions within the party.

“The way they abandoned supporters at D-Chowk will hurt the party’s ability to formulate its next steps,” he said.

Yet political observers said this week’s events have also cast a shadow on the government’s credibility.

“The government’s use of force was likely to set an example to deter future protests,” Shah said. “However, this heavy-handed approach risks backfiring in the coming days and exposes the current government’s failure to engage in dialogue or in de-escalating matters.”

Zaigham Khan, the Islamabad-based analyst, wasn’t surprised by the government’s response.

“This is the most unpopular government,” he said, pointing to allegations of rigging in the February elections that have plagued Sharif’s administration for the past nine months. “So any attempt seen as upsetting the apple cart, they could not afford it and went after them with such force.”