How are Western sanctions affecting Syria’s post-Assad transition? 

A wide array of Western sanctions are debilitating Syria’s economy and threatening its recovery after 14 years of civil war.

The United States and European Union both imposed sanctions against former President Bashar al-Assad and his regime for committing crimes during the war, which began after pro-democracy protesters were repressed in 2011.

While al-Assad is now gone, the sanctions remain in place, including on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group that overthrew al-Assad and is now leading Syria’s transition.

Some European officials recently said they would not lift sanctions until Syria’s new rulers demonstrate that they will protect minorities and share power.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock travelled to Syria with her French counterpart on January 3. She said their mission was “to discuss whether such an inclusive political process is possible and whether human rights can truly be guaranteed”.

“The entire question of lifting sanctions is tied to this,” she said.

Western sanctions were part of an effort to pressure al-Assad to change his actions, and Western policymakers argue that they will be necessary to do the same with the new administration. But many Syrians believe that the sanctions threaten to doom Syria’s political transition as it struggles to recover from years of destruction and isolation.

This is all you need to know about Western sanctions and how they affect Syria.

How many times has Syria been sanctioned?

In 1979, the US designated Syria as a state sponsor of “terrorism” while al-Assad’s father, Hafez, was in power. The regime was hit with additional targeted sanctions in 2004 for its prolonged occupation in Lebanon and for what Washington termed its support of “terrorism”.

Shortly after mass protests erupted against Bashar al-Assad in 2011, the US and EU imposed targeted sanctions against a handful of government officials in response to the brutal repression of the opposition.

The US and EU applied more sprawling sanctions as Syria slid deeper into turmoil, hitting the central bank and electricity and energy sectors.

These sanctions prevented the government from buying or trading money to stabilise its currency, keeping the lights on in much of the country and importing almost any form of technology.

The US then passed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act in 2019, which effectively banned states and private businesses from doing business with al-Assad’s government.

In addition, the US, EU and the United Nations Security Council have designated HTS a “terrorist” group due to its former links to al-Qaeda, which continue to make Western powers nervous about lifting sanctions.

Do these sanctions still apply?

They do.

The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and HTS’s “terrorist” designation are the most debilitating, according to Jerome Drevon, an expert on Syria with the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The former, he said, indirectly impacted all layers of Syria’s economy by effectively stopping the country from exporting or importing goods and raw materials.

The “terrorist” designation on HTS has a similar effect, he told Al Jazeera.

“Any transaction or investment in the country linked to the government [of HTS] … can be seen through the lens of supporting terrorism,” explained Drevon.

Do the sanctions harm aid operations?

Very much.

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), the US and the EU have issued a number of exemptions in order to sustain relief operations, yet sanctions still have a profound impact on aid groups.

Aid groups often have to navigate costly bureaucratic hurdles to ensure banks and exporters are not violating US or EU sanctions, which carry steep fines and the risk of jail terms.

These obstacles often lead to prolonged delays of aid deliveries inside Syria. Even worse, the perceived risk of violating sanctions  – even if there is an exemption – has a chilling effect that acutely limits the aid response.

Many banks and private companies prefer not to cooperate with aid agencies even when they are reassured they won’t be violating US and EU sanctions, said HRW.

“Primate parties and financial institutions often avoid dealing, directly or indirectly, with Syrian individuals or entities even in non-sanctioned sectors,” HRW wrote in a report published last year.

Should sanctions be removed?

The new Syrian administration has urged the US and others to lift sanctions, saying that the move would be vital to allowing Syria to rebuild itself.

Drevon argued that most of the sanctions should be removed.

He told Al Jazeera that the vast majority of the sanctions Syria is inheriting today were imposed to punish the al-Assad regime.

Those sanctions should be lifted, he said, now that the regime is gone.

The sanctions risk isolating Syria and forcing more civilians to pick up arms and tap into the illicit economy if viable alternatives are not available, warned Drevon.

“Sanctions threaten the destabilisation of the country in the mid-term,” he told Al Jazeera. “And, indeed, we have to imagine to what extent armed groups could pop up in different areas of the country and get involved in smuggling and the black market to make a living out of it.”

Is it too late to lift sanctions?

The short answer is no.

The US has made a move to issue waivers to allow aid groups and private entities to work around the sanctions and scale up relief efforts in the country, according to the Wall Street Journal.

An advocate who did not wish to be named told Al Jazeera that based on conversations held with members of the US administration, the suspension of sanctions would be “broad” and effectively permit direct transactions with the current authorities.

Drevon, from ICG, believes the suspension of sanctions would also effectively enable a number of business transactions to be conducted with the government.

The suspension will last for about six months, and then the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump will decide whether or not to keep or lift sanctions on Syria.

Drevon said the US move is a good first step, yet more needs to be done to stabilise Syria throughout its delicate transition.

“You can suspend sanctions, but it won’t necessarily incentivise the private sector to invest,” Drevon told Al Jazeera.“To what extent can anyone make long-term investments if nobody knows whether the suspension will last a long time?”