Despite the external and internal tensions that will continue to weigh on the national economy, Cuba plans for 2025 actions aimed at gradually reducing the distortions of the macroeconomy and encouraging the recovery of the main productive processes.
Presenting the behavior of this indicator this year and the goals for the next calendar, the Minister of Economy and Planning, Joaquín Alonso Vázquez, said that the multidimensional crisis at the global level and the serious complexities in the national environment, such as insufficient foreign currency collection, external financial restrictions and the effects on the National Electric System, among others, have led to a significant reduction in production and exports of goods and services.
In the case of goods, the Minister detailed, only 92.5% was reached, with the main defaults concentrated in nickel, rum, sugar and lobster, among others. Meanwhile, services, although they reached 101.6 % (with a higher incidence of medical services), did not achieve the expected results either, taking into account that tourism (76 %) and communications (84 %) did not fulfill their plans.
In this way, he clarified, the income in foreign currency shows an unfavorable behavior in relation to the plan, affecting the availability of foreign currency with 900 million less."
Alonso Vázquez also pointed out that agricultural productions did not honor their commitments either, with the largest defaults recorded in viands, meats and vegetables, while the harvest did not achieve the proposed goals either.
In relation to the energy balance, he reported that there was a reduction in electricity generation, both due to the deficit in generation capacity and to the insufficient availability of fuels, which had a negative impact on the performance of the economy.
Similarly, he explained that steel production was nil, while cement barely reached 43.2 %, and wood reached 17.6 %.
"The insufficient availability of foreign currency, with impacts on fuels and material balances, affected the execution of the investment process and constructive maintenance", he stressed.
WHAT PATHS WILL BE FOLLOWED IN 2025?
Considering that the demands of the entities exceed the material capacities of the economy, for next year variants aimed at reducing the foreign currency deficit and achieving a manageable level are foreseen.
The economic program in this sense must be coherent, under the precept of managing the crisis, mitigating the impacts of the economic war and advancing even under these conditions, the Minister said.
To this end, several priorities are established, among which are the generation of new exportable items and the addition of value to the current ones, as well as the promotion of exports based on knowledge and high technology, and the recovery of tourist services and the dynamization of others, together with the flow of foreign direct investment.
He specified that it is necessary to manage a greater attraction of remittances and other sources of financing, to advance in the transformation of the structure of imports in favor of raw materials and inputs to be able to produce in the country, and to reduce imports of finished products for direct commercialization.
It is also necessary to resume self-financing schemes in foreign currency that will allow them to have a minimum indispensable amount of resources for their activity, said the head of the economic branch.
As for food products, he pointed out, the tendency of previous years to increase prices is perceived, which leads to an increase in the importation of these products in physical quantities, and even when increases are planned in the main agricultural productions of the country, they will not be enough to satisfy the demand.
This does not mean, he emphasized, that there are municipalities that can be self-sustaining with certain products, "because it is an evolutionary process, as new resources and new capacities are generated."
Regarding the sugar industry, he pointed out that, although production levels are planned to be higher than those of the previous harvest, they are also insufficient to cover all the demand, including the standard family basket.
He added that raw sugar production is projected at 299,800 tons, refined sugar at 22,000 tons -double last year's production- and 30,000 tons for export, which will allow concluding the commitments that have already expired.
RECOVERY OF SENNA AND OTHER ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
Due to its direct impact on the national economy and on the quality of life of the people, the sustainability of the National Electric System continues to be a priority for the development of the country, in line with the Government Program approved for its recovery, which should contribute to improve the situation in 2025.
In this sense, it is estimated to generate 18,606 gigawatt hours (gwh), which represents more than 158.73 GWH with respect to this year; and of these, 1,734.6 must be generated from renewable energy sources, to reach 9.3% of the energy matrix.
Another priority, said Alonso Vázquez, is to increase production capacities to supply the domestic market, for which a total of 273 billion pesos is projected for retail circulation.
Likewise, a growth of the Gross Domestic Product of around 1% is planned for 2025, and according to the Minister of Economy and Planning, this behavior is mainly based on the projections of income recovery of the main exportable items, the revival of productive and industrial activities, as well as of social services to the population.
Regarding inflation, Alonso Vázquez stated that the projection is to continue its deceleration, with an estimate of between 25% and 30%.
Regarding transportation, he said, a gradual recovery is projected, "since the cargo to be transported amounts to 36,707,601 tons and the passengers to be transported to 1,063 million 506,000."
A greater use of industrial capacities is also projected, taking into account the best use of the installed technological availability, based on the financial support for raw materials and spare parts.
In order to achieve greater effectiveness in this aspect, an efficient integration and synergy between the state sector and non-state economic actors must be achieved, which will allow for greater cooperative production and linkages, with more affordable prices for the population, said the Minister.
Regarding the investment plan, he said that a total budget of 148,370 million pesos is foreseen, which will be derived to food production, the hydraulic program, bio-pesticide production, telecommunications, among other areas that impact the national economy.
Alonso Vázquez added that, as part of the process of decentralization of powers to the municipalities, it was proposed that the Decree Law on the Decentralization of Powers and Resources be submitted for approval in June of next year in order to carry out a greater consultation process.
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The sector's priorities include generating new exportable items and adding value to current ones. Photo: Ismael Batista Ramírez
